Operating from his home in the foothills north of Tucson,
Arizona and from this observatory, the
Grasslands Observatory,
near Sonoita, Arizona, James McGaha, FRAS is probably
the most effective amateur astronomer in the world at
making NEO astrometric follow-up observations. He has
authored or co-authored over 1,100 Minor Planet
Electronic Circulars (MPEC's) devoted to NEO orbital
data.
The IAU held a meeting of its General Assembly in Sydney, Australia in July 2003. At that meeting, Andrea Milani from the University of Pisa, Italy summarized the current problem in astrometry in an article appearing on the Space.com Web site ("Search for Large Asteroids Nears Completion, Experts Ponder Gaps in Program" by Michael Paine, posted 09:37 am ET 21 July 2003):
"He suggested that it was not very useful searching for new near-Earth asteroids if the extra work was not also done to check whether there was a risk of a collision. This usually involves alerting astronomers around the world to conduct follow-up observations. Much of the asteroid tracking effort involves amateurs who volunteer their time."
The "astronomers around the world" referred to by Andrea Milani consist of approximately a dozen or fewer amateur astronomers interested in performing the follow-up observations required to refine the orbit calculations along the lines of the quoted article. There are also two professional astronomers located in Eastern Europe in an area where the weather often prohibits observations from being made, and occasionally one or two other professional astronomers who do this work on the side out of interest and a sense of service to humanity.
Of the few hundred thousand amateur astronomers who subscribe to the monthly magazines Astronomy and Sky and Telescope, many are armchair astronomers who enjoy reading the magazines and may attend a local astronomy club lecture from time to time, but who do not even own a telescope. Of those who do get outside and observe, by far the vast majority are interested in seeing with their own eyes the magnificent beauty of the Heavens, and are not inclined, or trained, to do science. Of the possibly few percent of amateur astronomers who actually want to do science, a small percentage own the expensive equipment (by amateur standards) capable of photographing minor planets and tracking their orbits. Of those, only a very small percentage are interested in photographing minor planets to detect them, as opposed to using the expensive equipment for some other purpose. And, of those interested in minor planet research, by far the vast majority of amateur astronomers imaging minor planets are interested in discovering minor planets so they will have the right to name them.
The net result is a dozen or so dedicated amateurs now doing asteroid follow-up observations on a regular basis worldwide. With a very few exceptions, these are with small telescopes, 14 inches in aperture or less.
The article quoted above also refers to the fact that progress, though slow due to lack of funding, is being made on finding and tracking the larger (and consequently brighter) NEO's. As a result, the NEO's being discovered now are much fainter on average than the ones being discovered only a year or two ago. The amateurs that have performed the follow-up observations over the last five years began having difficulty about two years ago, and now, without exception, are having difficulty keeping up. In another year, all but the few with access to telescopes larger than about 20 inches will have to change observing programs, and we estimate that in two years, there may be only one or two amateur astronomers capable of continuing these observations on a regular basis. This is a crisis that must be addressed.
Last modified: January 3, 2008.